We investigate the usefulness of the European Commission confidence indicators in forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short-run in selected euro area countries (Belgium, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands) which account for almost 90% of the euro area. We estimate a linear...

Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...

The survey based monthly US ISM production index and Eurozone manufacturing PMI output index provide early information on industrial output growth before the release of the official industrial production index. I use the Carlson and Parkin probability method to construct monthly growth estimates...

In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model are used to understand plausible...

House price booms in Anglo-Saxon economies and their collapse were an important part of the financial accelerator via consumption, construction and the banking system. This paper examines links for Germany between household portfolios, income and consumption in a six-equation system, for...

This study extends a thick modelling tool for aggregated euro area real private consumption of de Bondt et al. (2019) to the four largest euro area countries. The suite of error correction models performs well in and out of sample. The ranges and averages of estimated elasticities are, however,...

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex...

We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...