This paper presents a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model for the euro area, denoted area-wide model (AWM). This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the area, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening...

This paper presents the French country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in collaboration by the ECB and the Banque de France. The theoretical structure of the model is in line with most current macroeconometric models, i.e. supply factors determine...

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian:...

The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian...

This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the U.S., identified by imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of DSGE models, with both real and nominal frictions, and with...

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset selection on the empirical performance of factor models....

This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) estimated on U.S. data in order to analyze monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads and asset markets in an integrated setup and to explore the role of monetary policy in the three...

This paper assesses the global spillovers from identified US monetary policy shocks in a global VAR model. US monetary policy generates sizable output spillovers to the rest of the world, which are larger than the domestic effects in the US for many economies. The magnitude of spillovers depends...