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On secular stagnation and low interest rates: Demography matters
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Gross, Marco; Neri, Stefano - 2017
Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804403
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Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area
Fabiani, Josefina; Fidora, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; … - 2021
This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total flows adjusted for EU and IMF loans and changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661625
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Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis
Balleer, Almut; Gómez-Salvador, Ramón; Turunen, Jarkko - 2009
impact of population ageing on participation rates in the euro area. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605095
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Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation
Vogel, Edgar; Ludwig, Alexander; Börsch-Supan, Axel - 2012
Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital- labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605521
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Demographics and inflation
Bobeica, Elena; Nickel, Christiane; Lis, Eliza; Sun, Yiqiao - 2017
Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy continues to rise and fertility … which monetary policy operates. This is particularly relevant for countries, like many in Europe, that face an ageing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606051
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Demographics, labor market power and the spatial equilibrium
Furbach, Nina - 2024
This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population, I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce, Using highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543590
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Demographics and inflation in the euro area: A two-sector new Keynesian perspective
Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; Papetti, Andrea - 2020
Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation can be on a downward trend. Using the structure of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422044
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A framework for assessing the costs of pension reform reversals
Baksa, Daniel; Munkacsi, Zsuzsa; Nerlich, Carolin - 2020
fiscal costs of such reversals. We thereby integrate the country-specific information from the latest Ageing Report into a … replicates the Ageing Report's pension expenditure projections very well. We calculate the macroeconomic impact of first the … additional pension reforms needed to contain the public debt pressures arising from population ageing and second the costs of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422058
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Demographics and the natural real interest rate: Historical and projected paths for the euro area
Papetti, Andrea - 2019
This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to demographics alone. Two channels contribute to this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142102
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Aging and Pension Reform : Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation
Vogel, Edgar - 2012
Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital-labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100571