This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro … outperforms all the other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The result is con¯rmed when the au …

-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved NPLs-and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning …

current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …' recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …