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-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853320
reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916855
the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916879
This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142044
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142094
The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1) were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets, especially in the US relative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081463
This paper puts forward a characterization of the structural features of the economic system relevant to the monetary-policy decisions of the European Central Bank. The econometric analysis adopts a parsimonious VAR representation of three key macroeconomic variables (interest rates, prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604048
This paper analyses in a unified framework the twin issues of the appropriate horizon for achieving price stability in the face of unexpected disturbances and the choice of a price level versus an inflation objective. Using a small estimated forward-looking model of the euro area economy, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604070
This paper investigates whether monetary policy impulses have asymmetric effects on output growth in seven countries of the euro area (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands). First, it is shown that these seven countries share the same business cycle. Next, strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604098
This paper presents empirical evidence on the behaviour of interbank lending in Germany after a monetary policy impulse. Our VAR analysis shows that following a monetary contraction, the banking system as a whole attracts additional funds from foreign banks. Whereas small cooperative and savings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604119