forecasts. In contrast to Boivin and Ng (2005), we show that the dynamic restrictions imposed by the procedure of Forni, Hallin … methods have a similar performance and produce highly collinear forecasts …

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of … and financial indicators. Both approaches deliver similar forecasts and scenario assessments. In addition, conditional … forecasts shed light on the stability of the dynamic relationships in the euro area during the recent episodes of financial …

from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …