This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is … used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper …

evidence from two surveys - one of central bank governors, the other of academic specialists. We find that central banks in …

Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived … measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non …

-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …

equilibrium models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of central … banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector …

use of measures of underlying in?ation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed in?ation. Recent … disaggregated price indices for European countries. We then assess the forecasting ability of these factor estimates against other … 12 to 18 months is adopted as a valid criterion to assess forecasting. Empirical results for the ?ve largest euro area …

real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An … accuracy of forecasts achieved by using monthly data on actual activity rather than surveys or financial indicators are offset …