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We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604635
forecasting di- rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches)out-perform methods based on the aggregation of country- specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605105
The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605134
This paper explores how discretionary fiscal policies on the revenue side of the government budget have reacted to economic fluctuations in European Union countries. For this purpose, it uses data on legislated revenue changes and structural indicators provided twice per year by National Central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605164
Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic … the choice of aggregation method. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605195
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411
We examine the two-level nested Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function where both capital and labor are disaggregated in two classes. We propose a normalized system estimation method to retrieve estimates of the inter- and intra-class elasticities of substitution and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605445
We estimate the elasticity of substitution of a country’s imports, and that of its exports on the world market, for EU countries using sector level trade data. We present a new empirical strategy based on the identification scheme by Feenstra (1994), which enables the estimation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605580