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financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. …The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604741
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604624
The question how best to communicate monetary policy decisions remains a highly topical issue among central banks. Focusing on the experience of the European Central Bank, this paper studies how explanations of monetary policy decisions at press conferences are perceived by financial markets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604813
This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the … visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB … communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227730
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318108
This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the US following their respective economies’ monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999 to May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the US and euro area bond and stock markets are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604772
decision-makers, and that attributed communication can mitigate some of their effects. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476255
We evaluate the effects on asset prices of the ECB asset purchase program (APP) announced in January 2015 and assess its main transmission channels. We do so by first extending a term structure model with bond supply effects to account for assets with different types of risk premia. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001152
Assessing the impact of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by the European Central Bank (ECB) on euro area sovereign yields is challenging, because the monetary policy announcement in January 2015 was already implicitly communicated to the market in the second half of 2014. Therefore, to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984575
The question how best to communicate monetary policy decisions remains a highly topical issue among central banks. Focusing on the experience of the European Central Bank, this paper studies how explanations of monetary policy decisions at press conferences are perceived by financial markets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317047