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Fiscal policy adjustments in the euro area stressed countries: new evidence from non-linear models with state-varying thresholds
De Santis, Roberto A.; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Milas, Costas - 2015
We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605903
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Fiscal Policy Adjustments in the Euro Area Stressed Countries : New Evidence from Non-Linear Models with State-Varying Thresholds
De Santis, Roberto A. - 2015
We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013642
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Signalling Fiscal Stress in the Euro Area -- A Country-Specific Early Warning System
de Cos, Pablo Hernández - 2014
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049852
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Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area
Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Sanchez Fuentes, Jesus; … - 2010
The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605312
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Towards Expenditure Rules and Fiscal Sanity in the Euro Area
Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2010
The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136395
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Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment
de Groot, Oliver - 2013
Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. This is done in the context of a panel vector autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089247
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Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Nerlich, Carolin - 2019
In this paper we analyse the interaction of fiscal rules and fiscal space. We find strong evidence for fiscal rules being associated with higher fiscal space. Furthermore, the analysis shows that countries with more fiscal space tend to have higher discretionary expenditures, but that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867815
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Inflation and fiscal policy: Is there a threshold effect in the fiscal reaction function?
Briodeau, Clémence; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina - 2023
changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary … an inflation turning point - beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being … the whole sample of euro area countries in 2022 (EA-19). Using an alternative measure of "inflation surprise" (available …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543680
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Fiscal Developments and Financial Stress : A Threshold VAR Analysis
Afonso, António - 2011
We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128285
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Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA
Paesani, Paolo; Strauch, Rolf; Kremer, Manfred - 2006
The debate on the sustainability of public finances is closely related to the analysis of the financial and macroeconomic consequences of government debt accumulation. Focusing on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2003 period, the central issue addressed in this paper is how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604702