predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

applications respectively on macroeconomic series, with a particular focus on different measures of inflation, and on financial … asset returns. Our model outperforms the benchmarks in forecasting the inflation level, its conditional variance and the …

inflation and output growth. We find that some combinations are superior to the individual models for the joint and the output …. For the inflation forecasts, the DSGE models are better overall than the BVARs and the combination methods …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the … evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using a standard sticky-price model …, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability, providing a …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …