. I find that when real unit labor cost is used as a monetary policy indicator, the potential output uncertainty has … quantitatively negligible consequences on policy behaviour and inflation dynamics …

The analysis of the conditions under which, and extent to which climate-adjusted financial risk assessment affects … limiting firms’ capacity to invest in low-carbon activities that could decrease their exposure to transition risk and help them …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper … estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting …

What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline … in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In … response to un-certainty shocks, firms increase their markups, in line with the theory of self-insurance against being stuck …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation …

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …

This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the … power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks …

on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …