We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium … requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers …

helps overall macroeconomic stability by making expectations operate like automatic stabilizers. Second, under a price level … arguments in favour of or against price level path stability depend on the degree of dependence of private sector expectations …

using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method …

Consumers' inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for … expectations. These include the apparent overestimation of inflation by consumers as well as the negative correlation observed … between the economic outlook and inflation expectations. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the …

consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may … confidence shock in the Southern European countries and a shift in consumer preferences in the Northern Eu-ropean countries …

expectations assumption, we show the transition may initially be inflationary. …

We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically …

Is there a systematic mapping between the Federal Reserve's expectations of macro variables and the words it uses to …

-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …