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In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199487
notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors to have a distribution with fatter tails than the Gaussian one equips … the model to better deal with the COVID-19 shock. A standard Gaussian VAR can still be used for producing conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605254
-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301
We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199442
The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278379
This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142044
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142094
and standard empirical benchmarks. The design is aligned to its role as workhorse model in the context of the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142159
better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389561
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422033