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In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199487
notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors to have a distribution with fatter tails than the Gaussian one equips … the model to better deal with the COVID-19 shock. A standard Gaussian VAR can still be used for producing conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605254
-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301
euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In a Bayesian VAR framework, the two credit supply shocks are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368003
This paper quantifies the pass-through of a US dollar appreciation on trade variables and domestic financial conditions in a panel of 34 countries. Pass-through coefficients are highly shock-dependent: if the appreciation is driven by a US expansionary shock, the positive effects of stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278393
the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422030
The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422134
include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the … in forecasting the aggregate. We show theoretically that the first method of forecasting the aggregate should outperform … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604635
This paper estimates the effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Spain in a VAR framework. Government expenditure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604693
(2005) and a large scale model, introducing the sign restrictions approach to the global VAR (GVAR) literature, that allows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605364