the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters …

improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

parameterizations of a given policy rule, we use structured singular value analysis (from robust control theory) to find the largest …