within our framework and we derive the relationship between the news and the resulting forecast revision. This can be used …

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising … Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2006) and Banbura and Ruenstler (2007). An out-of-sample forecast comparison exercise is also … carried out for each component and GDP directly. The forecast performance is found to vary widely across components. Two …

We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the role of individual series in a dynamic factor … model (DFM) to forecast euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman filter allows us to deal with … forecast evaluation …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …