This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No...

We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500; options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

Testing and estimating the rank of a matrix of estimated parameters is key in a large variety of econometric modelling scenarios. This paper describes general methods to test for and estimate the rank of a matrix, and provides details on a variety of modelling scenarios in the econometrics...

Testing and estimating the rank of a matrix of estimated parameters is key in a large variety of econometric modelling scenarios. This paper describes general methods to test for and estimate the rank of a matrix, and provides details on a variety of modelling scenarios in the econometrics...

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not garantuee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indiciation that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper we question this conventional...

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area...

We study the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980-2004. Given the Maastricht agreements and the adoption of the single currency, the sample can be naturally split into two parts, before and after the birth of the euro....