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This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916855
We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Abiding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605950
We document how the distribution of exchange rate returns responds to changes in global financial conditions. We measure global financial conditions as the common component of country-specific financial condition indices, computed consistently across a large panel of developed and emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422049
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates -- that is,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604294
This paper assesses the contemporaneous, leading and lagging indicator properties of financial market variables relative to movements in six major developed country currency pairs. As indicator variables changes in various relative asset prices, short-term portfolio flows and currency options...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604425
the Johansen cointegration framework, four Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate models are estimated using four different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604271
This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605036
Exchange rate movements affect the economy through changes in net exports, i.e. the trade channel, and through valuation changes in assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies, i.e. the financial channel. In this paper, I investigate the macroeconomic and financial effects of U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278274
Dominant currency pricing (DCP) weakens the demand-side effects of exchange rate changes on exports (Gopinath et al., 2020). However, adjustment in the export sector can still occur through other supply-side channels. With bilateral trade data at the HS2-product level, panel fixed-effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605276
This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604411