of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which … results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the …

forecasting together with cross-equation accounting identities. A pseudo real-time forecasting exercise indicates that the model … outperforms various benchmarks, such as quarterly time series models and bridge equations in forecasting growth in quarterly GDP …

a significant impact of forecasting accuracy irrespective of the model in use, ostensibly due to the presence of breaks …

forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …

This paper explores the role of model and vintage combination in forecasting, with a novel approach that exploits the …

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and double-exponential priors as forecasting methods based on …

perform forecasting tests by the same authors on US data. This technique is explored for the euro area using a multi …-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the …

forecasting di- rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches)out-perform methods based on the aggregation of country- specific …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis … theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using …