This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a “rule of thumb” for predicting changes in unemployment … differential reaction of unemployment to changes in the various expenditure components of GDP - significantly enhances the capacity … of the Okun relationship (in comparison to the aggregate “rule of thumb”) for predicting movements in unemployment. The …

with a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

regards the possibility of a time-varying mean of inflation. Moreover, we conduct a sensitivity analysis across different … of the Phillips curve occurring in the early to mid 1980s, but not in inflation persistence once the mean shift is … allowed for. As a result of the structural change, the Phillips curve became flatter around a lower mean of inflation. Second …

capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment'. We then …We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people ….e., unemployment is ‘involuntary'). We integrate our model of involuntary unemployment into the simple New Keynesian framework with no …

employment and hours affecting inflation dynamics via marginal costs. We find that the response of unemployment and inflation to … persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Moreover, the impact of a monetary policy shock on unemployment and inflation …

This paper relates the size of the cyclical inflation differentials, currently observed for euro area countries, to the … cyclical inflation differentials. The proposed mechanism is a supply side one in which differences in labor market institutions …

-related variables accounts for changes (rises) in the Okun's parameter in the US in recent decades. Accordingly, the unemployment gap is …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …