tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes … propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of … than the futures and the random walk up to 11 quarters ahead, on average, and generates a forecast whose performance is …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …