Not so much and we should not, at least not yet.

We quantify the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We use five destination countries and a number of source countries to provide broad evidence on the link. Source country output shocks produce important...

We propose the method of eigenvalue filtering as a new tool to extract time series subcomponents (such as business-cycle or irregular) defined by properties of the underlying eigenvalues. We logically extend the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of the VAR time-series models focusing on the...

This paper illustrates how to handle a sequence of extreme observations—such as those recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic—when estimating a Vector Autoregression, which is the most popular time-series model in macroeconomics. Our results show that the ad-hoc strategy of dropping these...

This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...

The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...

We study the business cycle properties of the four largest euro area economies in the wake of the recent recession episodes. The analysis is based on the factors estimated from a multi-country and multi-sector data-rich environment. We measure alikeness of business cycles by studying the...

To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo...

Pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour implies that exporters adjust their prices to the prevailing prices in their export markets. For the importing country, PTM effects can be interpreted as a measure of the stability of domestic prices against foreign price and exchange rate developments. PTM...

This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy,...