Showing 1 - 10 of 208
models. They outperform the best performing linear models for “real-time” and “bootstrap” forecasts for service indices for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604398
variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The …, the bootstrap exercises point to confidence bands close to 1 per cent around the estimated value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604111
bootstrap analysis exploits information contained in these reaction functions and constructs counterfactual distributions of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605624
The correct implementation of the Durbin and Koopman simulation smoother is explained. A possible misunderstanding is pointed out and clarified for both the basic state space model with a non-zero mean of the initial state and with time-varying intercepts (mean adjustments).
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605912
The rank of the Hankel matrix, corresponding to a system transfer function, is equal to the order of its minimal state space realization. The computation of the rank of the Hankel matrix is complicated by the fact that its block elements are rarely given exactly but are estimated instead. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604091
The rank of the spectral density matrix conveys relevant information in a variety of modelling scenarios. Phillips (1986) showed that a necessary condition for cointegration is that the spectral density matrix of the innovation sequence at frequency zero is of a reduced rank. In a recent paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604108
Testing and estimating the rank of a matrix of estimated parameters is key in a large variety of econometric modelling scenarios. This paper describes general methods to test for and estimate the rank of a matrix, and provides details on a variety of modelling scenarios in the econometrics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604896
Testing and estimating the rank of a matrix of estimated parameters is key in a large variety of econometric modelling scenarios. This paper describes general methods to test for and estimate the rank of a matrix, and provides details on a variety of modelling scenarios in the econometrics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316643
It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not garantuee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indiciation that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper we question this conventional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604241
The rank of the spectral density matrix conveys relevant information in a variety of statistical modelling scenarios. This note shows how to estimate the rank of the spectral density matrix at any given frequency. The method presented is valid for any hermitian positive de?nite matrix estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604395