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What Accounts for the Changes in U.S. Fiscal Policy Transmission?
Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J. - 2021
Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series for 1957-1979 and 1983-2004, we find government spending shocks to have stronger effects on output, consumption, and wages in the earlier sample. We try to account for this observation within a DSGE model featuring price rigidities and limited...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318046
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Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Output and Euro Area Inflation Forecasts : A Real-Time Approach Based on Model Combination
Guerin, Pierre - 2011
predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226
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The Impact of Constrained Monetary Policy on the Fiscal Multipliers on Output and Inflation
Bletzinger, Tilman - 2017
on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963016
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US : An Empirical Assessment
Burriel, Pablo - 2009
We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly available quarterly dataset of fiscal variables for the period 1981-2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro area countries and the US, we use a standard structural VAR framework, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153261
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Globalisation, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps : Evidence from the Euro Area
Calza, Alessandro - 2015
This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the … power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750226
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Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap : Reliability and Forecasting Performance
Marcellino, Massimiliano Giuseppe; Musso, Alberto - 2021
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316260
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Inflation and Output Volatility Under Asymmetric Incomplete Information
Carboni, Giacomo; Ellison, Martin - 2021
. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316318
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Nowcasting GDP and Inflation : The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases
Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Small, David H. - 2021
This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318105
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Does product market competition reduce inflation? Evidence from EU countries and sectors
Przybyla, Marcin; Roma, Moreno - 2005
In this paper we explore the link between the intensity of product market competition and inflation rates across EU … countries and sectors. We consider long-term averages of inflation rates in order to remove the cyclical behavior of inflation … product market competition, as proxied by the level of mark-up in particular, is an important driver of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604499