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Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006

novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604741

The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects

Thornton, Daniel L. - 2008

The phrase “liquidity effect” was introduced by Milton Friedman (1969) to describe the first of three effects on interest rates caused by an exogenous change in the money supply. The lack of empirical support for the liquidity effect using monthly and quarterly data using various monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605030

Identification of systematic monetary policy

Hack, Lukas; Istrefi, Klodiana; Meier, Matthias - 2023

historical composition of hawks and doves in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with (ii) an instrument that leverages the … mechanical FOMC rotation of voting rights. We apply our design to study the effects of government spending shocks. We find fiscal … multipliers between two and three when the FOMC is dovish and below zero when it is hawkish. Narrative evidence from historical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543651

Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions: Vidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Ehrmann, Michael; Tietz, Robin; Visser, Bauke - 2021

Whether Federal Reserve Bank presidents have the right to vote on the U.S. monetary policy committee depends on a mechanical, yearly rotation scheme. Rotation is without exclusion: also nonvoting presidents attend and participate in the meetings of the committee. Does voting status change...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605265