We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the … Phillips curve portion of the model; and (ii) the volatilities of disturbances to inflation and cyclical(log) output, which we …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility. …

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a … helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of … the model to account for the joint dynamics of output and inflation rely on its ability to explain the dynamics in the …

inflation. We introduce a small idiosyncratic component in firms’ marginal costs and let the economywide average marginal cost …

inflation series of the euro area CPI translates into the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. We first estimate a … dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI. This allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation … the overall variance of the 404 disaggregate inflation series, is the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the …

interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation … well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response …

inflation and the extent of real wage rigidity but that these effects depend on the definition of reference norms (e.g. how …

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation … volatile inflation. Models with wage stickiness and right-to-manage bargaining or with firm-specific labour emerge as the most …