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Yield curves built from liquid instruments tend to exhibit specific features, both in term of smoothness and in term of patterns. The paper presents empirical evidence that those liquid yiled curves frequently conform to a specific functional form. This specific functional form is predicted by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604194
This paper uses data on German government bond futures options to examine the behaviour of market expectations around … expectations, as measured by the skewness of option-implied probability distributions of future bond yields. The results show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604361
the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete … history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over ten years of daily data, from 13 January 1999 onwards. Time series of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605327
This paper presents empirical evidence that the corporate bond market is forward looking with respect to volatility. I use the Merton (1974) model to calculate a measure of implied volatility from corporate bond yield spreads. I find that corporate bond transaction prices contain substantial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604846
This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event's outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199444
Climate-linked bonds, issued by governments and supranational organizations, are pivotal in advancing towards a net-zero economy. These bonds adjust their payoffs based on climate variables such as average temperature and greenhouse gas emissions, providing investors a hedge against long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199518
Market participants use leveraged derivatives to gain access to equity market exposure through broker banks. Leverage and interconnectedness via overlapping portfolios of dealer banks can amplify adverse market movements, potentially causing sizeable losses. I propose a model, based on granular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278525
Most studies focusing on the determinants of loss given default (LGD) have largely ignored possible lagged effects of the macroeconomy on LGD. We fill this gap by employing a wide set of macroeconomic covariates on a retail portfolio that represents 15% of the Czech consumer credit market over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667201
Protection buyers use derivatives to share risk with protection sellers, whose assets are only imperfectly pledgeable because of moral hazard. To mitigate moral hazard, privately optimal derivative contracts involve variation margins. When margins are called, protection sellers must liquidate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142035
The present paper focuses on three questions: (i) Are heavy tails a relevant feature of the distribution of BUND futures returns? (ii) Is the tail behaviour constant over time? (iii) If it is not, can we use the tail index as an indicator for financial market risk and does it add value in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604245