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where (i) the shock of interest is observed, (ii) the impact variable of interest is observed at a lower frequency (as a … frequency of the shock, and (iv) the full set of relevant endogenous variables entering the DGP is unknown or unobserved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315353
economic growth to a fiscal shock are mostly positive in both financial stress regimes; (iii) financial stress has a negative … shock is mainly associated with different behaviour across regimes; (v) the size of the fiscal multipliers is higher than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128285
The empirical literature using vector autoregressive models to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on even the qualitative response of key macroeconomic variables to government spending and tax shocks. We provide new evidence for the U.S. over the period 1955-2006. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766572
We study the identification of policy shocks in Bayesian proxy VARs for the case that the instrument consists of sparse qualitative observations indicating the signs of certain shocks. We propose two identification schemes, i.e. linear discriminant analysis and a non-parametric sign concordance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844716
We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243822
weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude … countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than do advanced economies …. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for fiscal policy and publicly-provided disaster insurance. Our policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159926
This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We … combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector Autore …-gressions which explicitly considers the seasonal dependence of the shock. Results suggest the presence of significant country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355983
We contribute to the debate surrounding central banks and climate change by investigating how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs), we study the impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311775
This paper shows that Vector Autoregression with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results by De Mol, Giannone, and Reichlin (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012769281
We propose a class of prior distributions that discipline the long-run behavior of Vector Autoregressions (VARs). These priors can be naturally elicited using economic theory, which provides guidance on the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series in the long run. Our priors for the long run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926335