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Through the euro area crisis, financial fragmentation across jurisdictions became a prime concern for the single monetary policy. The ECB broadened the scope of its instruments and enacted a series of non-standard measures to engineer an appropriate degree of policy accommodation. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889467
We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilisation in catching up participating countries. We allow member states' supply conditions to differ inside the union, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks on balance hamper the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317597
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and “behavioral equilibrium exchange rate” models, and assessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963129
yields predicts risk premia in both short-term interest rates and exchange rates at return-forecasting horizons of up to six … months for all (but one) countries and currencies in our sample. Our single forecasting factor loads positively on the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926459
better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844460
We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts … real exchange rate forecasting. However, it fails to forecast nominal exchange rates better than the random walk. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988876
reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918409
data than simpler models including the random walk. The traditional test based on forecasting ability is applied as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143622
The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604574
-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226