This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well...

This paper presents time-varying contagion indices of credit risk spillover and feedback between 64 financials and sovereigns in the euro area, where spillover is identified based on bilateral Granger causality regressions. Over-identification of contagion between financials’ true credit risk...

In this paper, we develop an agent-based multi-layered interbank network model based on a sample of large EU banks. The model allows for taking a more holistic approach to interbank contagion than is standard in the literature. A key finding of the paper is that there are material...

In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of the global recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data to capture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how far network...

We study the interplay between two channels of interconnectedness in the banking system. The first one is a direct interconnectedness, via a network of interbank loans, banks' loans to other corporate and retail clients, and securities holdings. The second channel is an indirect...

We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...

This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...

We study the interplay between two channels of interconnectedness in the banking system. The first one is a direct interconnectedness, via a network of interbank loans, banks' loans to other corporate and retail clients, and securities holdings. The second channel is an indirect...

In this paper, we develop an agent-based multi-layered interbank network model based on a sample of large EU banks. The model allows for taking a more holistic approach to interbank contagion than is standard in the literature. A key finding of the paper is that there are material...

This paper presents time-varying contagion indices of credit risk spillover and feedback between 64 financials and sovereigns in the euro area, where spillover is identified based on bilateral Granger causality regressions. Over-identification of contagion between financials' true credit risk...