-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent … assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor … inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model framework is also applied to study the effects on inflation subcomponents in … the more recent past. The FAVAR models suggest that headline inflation in the three economies has reacted in a relatively …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent … assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer …

cross-country differences in the mismatch of perceived and actual inflation in the aftermath of the cash changeover are …

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the … Phillips curve portion of the model; and (ii) the volatilities of disturbances to inflation and cyclical(log) output, which we …