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overwhelmingly large. This finding is also confirmed under different identification strategies for the monetary policy shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139795
In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146204
restrictions. It introduces a new indicator for oil demand, and uniquely, performs a sign restriction set-up with a penalty … underline the importance of the source of an oil shock for its macroeconomic consequences. Oil supply shocks have been less … relevant in driving real oil prices, and had less of an effect on US inflation than demand shocks. Overall, the effects of oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315918
regions with widening imbalances, the United States and emerging Asia, using sign restrictions that are compatible with … imbalances in the US and emerging Asia than a quot;savings glutquot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771616
significant and large economically. On average, global equity market valuations correct by about 20% in the month when a shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035639
In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605216
overwhelmingly large. This finding is also confirmed under different identification strategies for the monetary policy shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605278
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … elasticity of oil demand and supply in the uncertain regime, or in other words, that both oil curves become steeper when … uncertainty is high. The difference in oil demand elasticities is both statistically and economically meaningful. Accordingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065408
The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315299
We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352840