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Reporting Biases and Survey Results : Evidence from European Professional Forecasters

Garcia, Juan A.; Manzanares, Andres - 2021

Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316742

Density Characteristics and Density Forecast Performance : A Panel Analysis

Kenny, Geoff - 2014

effect panel regressions linking such density characteristics and density forecast performance. Our empirical results suggest … that many macroeconomic experts could systematically improve their density performance by correcting a downward bias in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054084

Nowcasting

Banbura, Marta - 2010

We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Crucial in this process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically collected at low frequency and published with long...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135504

Survey-Based Nowcasting of US Growth : A Real-Time Forecast Comparison Over More than 40 Years

D'Agostino, Antonello - 2012

Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We conduct a fully-fledged real-time out-of-sample forecasting … indicators convey valuable information for assessing current economic conditions. The SPF clearly outperforms the PMI in … included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103559

Sometimes it Helps : The Evolving Predictive Power of Spreads on GDP Dynamics

Nicoletti, Giulio - 2012

We investigate the predictive content of credit and government interest spreads with respect to the Italian GDP growth. Our analysis with Dynamic Model Averaging identifies when interest spreads were more useful predictors of economic activity: these periods are not limited to the Great...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104609

Prediction Using Several Macroeconomic Models

Amisano, Gianni - 2013

Prediction of macroeconomic aggregates is one of the primary functions of macroeconometric models, including dynamic factor models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, and vector autoregressions. This study establishes methods that improve the predictions of these models, using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083210

Forecasting the World Economy in the Short-Term

Jakaitiene, Audrone - 2009

Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159358

Forecast Performance in the ECB SPF : Ability or Chance?

Meyler, Aidan - 2020

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842351

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

D'Agostino, Antonello - 2006

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780502

Forecasting the Covid-19 Recession and Recovery : Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Foroni, Claudia - 2020

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822725

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