-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …