quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the … for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a …We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

of a forecast breakdown in the Phillips' curve forecasts of U.S. inflation, and links it to inflation volatility and to …We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good … forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest …

results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … forecasting models and is also important for the conduct of monetary policy, as the crisis entails changes in the effect of …