Showing 1 - 10 of 274
We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts … real exchange rate forecasting. However, it fails to forecast nominal exchange rates better than the random walk. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605950
better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389561
reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916855
diminished for lending to non-banks since Brexit. Offshore financial centres are pivotal for US dollars loans, reflecting, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543649
We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar (USD) plays a dominant role in services trade. Drawing on a new granular dataset on extra-European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543670
We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476338
We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278163
The holy grail of cross-border payments is a solution allowing cross-border payments to be immediate, cheap, universal, and settled in a secure settlement medium. The search for such a solution is as old as international commerce and the implied need to pay. This paper describes current visions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278169
Exchange rate movements affect the economy through changes in net exports, i.e. the trade channel, and through valuation changes in assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies, i.e. the financial channel. In this paper, I investigate the macroeconomic and financial effects of U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278274
This paper quantifies the pass-through of a US dollar appreciation on trade variables and domestic financial conditions in a panel of 34 countries. Pass-through coefficients are highly shock-dependent: if the appreciation is driven by a US expansionary shock, the positive effects of stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278393