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natural experiment to study the effects of reduced bank capital adequacy on productivity. Affected banks respond not only by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889191
This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143622
both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset … are that complementing bank specific vulnerabilities with indicators for macro-financial imbalances and banking sector … vulnerabilities improves model performance and yields useful out-of-sample predictions of bank distress during the current financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074637
frictions in which bank assets are a portfolio of defaultable loans. We show that ex-ante imperfect diversification of bank … lending generates bank asset returns with limited upside but significant downside risk. The asymmetric distribution of these … returns and their implications for the evolution of bank net worth are important for capturing the frequency and severity of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833095
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for the positive and normative analysis of macroprudential policies. Optimizing financial intermediaries allocate their scarce net worth together with funds raised from saving households across two lending activities, mortgage and corporate lending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019587
The primary driver of commercial bank failures during the Great Recession was exposure to the real estate sector, not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024730
multivariate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macrofinancial vulnerabilities greatly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128992
We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Crucial in this process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically collected at low frequency and published with long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135504
This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138013
The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226