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components for a large data set comprising the U.S., the EU-27 area, and the respective rest of the world. Credit risk conditions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316033
This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604518
Dynamic rational inattention problems used to be difficult to solve. This paper provides simple, analytical results for dynamic rational inattention problems. We start from the benchmark rational inattention problem. An agent tracks a variable of interest that follows a Gaussian process. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963912
since mid-2012 the horizon when short rates are expected to exceed 25 bps again has ranged between 18 and 62 months …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963943
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
potential and stationary inflation. This paper applies the method recently suggested by Laubach and Williams to jointly estimate … area was on average stimulative during 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318194
The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353253
countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best … elasticities implied by theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, the sample after 1990 shows considerably less inflation … variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation, and generates a fairly low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073658
and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among … exist among regions. In addition, a considerable part of the observed headline inflation rises is attributable to foreign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159237
equilibrium values having explanatory power for subsequent consumer price inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777411