. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Crucial in this … essentially requires the assessment of the impact of new data on the subsequent forecast revisions for the target variable. We … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …

included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast …

Prediction of macroeconomic aggregates is one of the primary functions of macroeconometric models, including dynamic … data set. It focuses on prediction over the period 1966 through 2011. It measures the quality of prediction by the …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

activity declined remarkably, relative to naive forecasts, since the mid-1980s. This break down in forecast ability appears to …

similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes … propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of … than the futures and the random walk up to 11 quarters ahead, on average, and generates a forecast whose performance is …