In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted …. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior … declining inflation and labor shares in Euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment'. We then …We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people ….e., unemployment is ‘involuntary'). We integrate our model of involuntary unemployment into the simple New Keynesian framework with no …

professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey … forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation …

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent … assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … expectations on inflation and a resurgence of the 'sacrifice ratio' …