Showing 1 - 10 of 93
We estimate the degree of ‘stickiness’ in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption … habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high … degree of auto-correlation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky-consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604932
Since the late-1990s, the global economy is characterised by historically low risk premia and an unprecedented widening of external imbalances. This paper explores to what extent these two global trends can be understood as a reaction to three structural shocks in different regions of the global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771616
stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model …We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent … saving rate's long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605519
This paper presents a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model for the euro area, denoted area-wide model (AWM). This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the area, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604088
In order to obtain a better understanding of the transmission channels for monetary policy, this paper assesses the importance of the interest rate and credit channels on business fixed investment in Germany. Our unbalanced panel of financial statements contains 44,345 firm/year observations for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604155
This paper presents the French country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in collaboration by the ECB and the Banque de France. The theoretical structure of the model is in line with most current macroeconometric models, i.e. supply factors determine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604502
The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604692
The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604700
This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604706
The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing-up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld-Rogoff model works exclusively via demand-side channels and abstracts from possible supply-side changes. We extend the framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604807