Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

, more structural factors also play a role, such as declining consumption of fuel and tobacco, as well as factors specific to …

essentially requires the assessment of the impact of new data on the subsequent forecast revisions for the target variable. We … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …

included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast …