Showing 1 - 10 of 769
dollar shock, generalised impulse response function shocks and a global shock to risk aversion. Our results show that the way … depends crucially on the nature of the shock. This result is noteworthy given the apparent divergence in competitiveness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130602
This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to …-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at … the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060040
adjustment process around PPP. By contrast, we combine these two explanations in the context of an innovative panel estimation … much shorter than estimated using linear PPP and more consistent with the observed volatility of nominal and real exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134541
business cycle volatility and have nonlinear effects on risk premia. Our empirical analysis suggests that the Great Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086095
In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844460
We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239531
The empirical literature using vector autoregressive models to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on even the qualitative response of key macroeconomic variables to government spending and tax shocks. We provide new evidence for the U.S. over the period 1955-2006. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766572
We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy … shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification …. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243822
left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity trap in 1999. According to previous … volatility at the turn of the millennium when Japanese foreign exchange intervention started to remain unsterilized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317566
How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310676