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Following Fuhrer and Moore (1995), several authors have proposed alternative mechanisms to 'hardwire' inflation … European Monetary Union, of inflation-targeting countries, and of the new Swiss monetary policy regime, I show that, in the …), the parameters encoding the 'intrinsic' component of inflation persistence are not invariant across monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764450
We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a traditional Phillips curve … to affect inflation through (the common part of) domestic demand and supply conditions. Our most important result is that … the common component of changes in unit labor costs has a notable impact of inflation. We also find evidence that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765190
Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation … dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but … their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858259
This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into … quarters of the past six years, especially in turning point periods. Our main results indicate that headline inflation in euro … inflation this increasing sensitivity is solely reliant on a sustained surge in the degree of comovement, for energy inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838756
Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent … downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation … inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838759
How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844267
breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822484
on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963016
monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963628
Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963915