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This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker, which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions using a minimum amount of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314795
In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR … model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146204
broad commodity price index and all of its components. While these effects are significant, they however do not appear to be … overwhelmingly large. This finding is also confirmed under different identification strategies for the monetary policy shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139795
-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely … idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the fluctuations in commodity prices is well summarised by a single global factor … commodity price variations has increased since the 2000s, especially for oil prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943325
underline the importance of the source of an oil shock for its macroeconomic consequences. Oil supply shocks have been less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315918
In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR … model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605216
We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136582
where (i) the shock of interest is observed, (ii) the impact variable of interest is observed at a lower frequency (as a … frequency of the shock, and (iv) the full set of relevant endogenous variables entering the DGP is unknown or unobserved …. We find that the pass-through is fast, with about 23% of the crude oil price changes passed through to retail gasoline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315353
This paper investigates whether the real oil price has an impact on the real exchange rates of three main oil … the real oil price and the real exchange rate. However, we find virtually no impact of the real oil price on the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316726
-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely … idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the fluctuations in commodity prices is well summarised by a single global factor … commodity price variations has increased since the 2000s, especially for oil prices. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853300