effect panel regressions linking such density characteristics and density forecast performance. Our empirical results suggest … density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of common macroeconomic shocks, we apply cross-sectional and fixed … distributions tend - as a rule - not to contribute significantly to enhancing individual density forecast performance …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …