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This paper analyses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies in a monetary union with an … focus on the size and the direction of international spillovers - both from the shock itself and from the ensuing fiscal … lifetimes, the responses of output and inflation are amplified compared to the case with infinitely lived households. Finally, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323904
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065408
declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a … setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243822
Recent research has argued that the COVID-19 shock has also brought about a reallocation shock. We examine the evidence … a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labor market patterns in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403176
model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends … in metals and a food prices. These factors are included in a FAVAR model together with selected macroeconomic variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146204
additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829414
The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315299
This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker, which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions using a minimum amount of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314795
In response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, there has been a complementary approach to monetary and fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210564
updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it … provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838842