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The Predictive Power of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models

Ca'Zorzi, Michele - 2020

In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844460

Modelling Ireland's Exchange Rates : From EMS to EMU

Bond, Derek - 2007

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775859

A Structural Break in the Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention on Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility

Hillebrand, Eric T.; Schnabl, Gunther - 2021

volatility at the turn of the millennium when Japanese foreign exchange intervention started to remain unsterilized …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317566

Boosting Carry with Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates

Rubaszek, Michał; Beckmann, Joscha; Ca'Zorzi, Michele; … - 2022

We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239531

Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR

Bussière, Matthieu - 2011

This paper provides evidence on whether the creation of the euro has changed the way global turbulences affect euro area and other economies. Specifically, it considers the impact of global shocks on the competitiveness of individual euro area countries and assesses whether their responses to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130602

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland : Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

Arratibel, Olga - 2014

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060040

Methodological Advances in the Assessment of Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Bussière, Matthieu - 2010

. The third issue discusses the uncertainty associated to the estimation of a reduced form relationship for the real … exchange rate, concluding that inference can be improved by panel estimation. The fourth and final issue addresses the presence … of strong and weak cross section dependence in panel estimation, suggesting which panel estimators one could use in this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149063

Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets

Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur - 2015

Using a novel dataset on changes in capital controls and currency-based prudential measures in 17 major emerging market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001-2011, this paper provides new evidence on domestic and multilateral (or spillover) effects of capital controls before and after the global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016947

Global Value Chain Participation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Georgiadis, Georgios - 2019

This paper draws a causal link between the rise of global value chain participation and the decline of exchange rate pass-through to import prices over the last decades. We first present a structural two-country model in order to illustrate how participation in global value chains can impact...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859921

External Imbalances and the US Current Account : How Supply-Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment

Engler, Philipp; Fidora, Michael; Thimann, Christian - 2021

The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing-up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld-Rogoff model works exclusively via demand-side channels and abstracts from possible supply-side changes. We extend the framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317053