Showing 1 - 10 of 42
This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149063
We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239531
The fixed rate tender is one of the main procedural formats relied upon by central banks in their implementation of monetary policy. This fact stands in a somewhat puzzling contrast to the prevalent view in the theoretical literature that the procedure, by fixing interest rate and quantity at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012784111
We develop a model to examine how discount rates affect the nature and composition of innovation within an industry. Challenging conventional wisdom, we show that higher discount rates do not discourage firm innovation when accounting for the industry equilibrium. Higher discount rates deter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349372
We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136525
Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153230
Using a structural VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility on post-WWII U.S. data, we document a striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the evolution of the persistence and predictability of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775858
In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for conducting forward-looking assessments of profitability and solvency of the main euro area insurance sectors. We model the balance sheet of an insurance company encompassing both life and non-life business and we calibrate it using country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961958
Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activity may be correspondingly negatively affected. At the same time, however, public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316898
This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604651