wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we …

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of discretionary fiscal policy for inflation … is difficult to find robust evidence of the fiscal policy stance or impulse impacting directly on inflation differentials …. We do find, however, support for an indirect effect of discretionary fiscal policy on inflation differentials working …

the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines information across countries. The impulse responses in the NMS are … volatile inflation, the Phillips curve is steeper than in the euro area countries. This finding is consistent with economic …

Does an inflation conservative central bank agrave; la Rogoff (1985) remain desirable in a setting with endogenous … spending. The optimal inflation rate internalizing this distortion is positive, but lack of monetary commitment robustly … generates too much inflation. A conservative monetary authority thus remains desirable. Exclusive focus on inflation by the …

qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent inflation. The usefulness of monetary analysis is contrasted to weaknesses … in modeling monetary policy and inflation with respectively short-term interest rates and real activity measures. The … analysis sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening …

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United … States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on … inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent inflation. The usefulness of monetary analysis is contrasted to weaknesses … in modeling monetary policy and inflation with respectively short-term interest rates and real activity measures. The … analysis sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening …